... Det finns nog många artiklar på ämnet, bland annat denna som säger att det högsta uppmätta PDO någonsin i NHL är Bostons 103,3 från säsongen 08-09.
Denna artikel pratar även om PDO och hur man ska tolka den.
The greater the distance from 100, the more likely there will be a change. If it’s low, it will go up. If it’s high, it will go down. This is called regression to the mean, and the NHL (or any hockey league), the mean is exactly 100. Always. By definition. Every shot in the league is either a goal or a save.
The value of PDO lies in it’s ability to show how far away one particular player or team’s experience is from the average. Basically, PDO takes advantage of a feature of how the numbers fall to describe a particular slice of the season.
An analogy: Imagine that you flip a coin 5 times and get HHHTH. You know that the average will be 50% heads, not 80%. The average is mathematically defined. You understand that if you keep flipping that coin, if you add data, it will–whether gradually or precipitously–move closer and closer to 50%. It will regress towards the mean. It may take 3 more flips to reach exactly 50% (all tails); it may take 20 more flips; it may take 1000 more flips. But it will get closer and closer over time.
What about talent? Some guys are better shooters than others. Some goalies are better.
Yes, this is true. However, two things are acting on PDO to bring it into line.
The first is that this is on-ice performance, not individual performance. Individual players have very little ability to consistently affect the shooting percentages of their linemates. And there are 5 players on the ice. Steven Stamkos may be able to score on 12% or more of all the shots he takes, but the 4 other guys he skates with aren’t. And Stamkos has very, very little control over his goalie’s save percentage. So as accurate as Stamkos may be, his on-ice shooting percentage will not be that high.
Och som du funderar kring om ett bättre lag har högre PDO:
However, almost no one gets to exactly 100. Some teams and players are in fact better at maintaining a slightly higher PDO than others. Some teams have both accurate shooters and great goaltending. Some players have both great linemates and great goaltenders. Some players and some teams are genuinely bad at both. These are players and teams we consider to be above or below average at shooting and goaltending.
Men som sagt, det historiska “rekordet” i NHL är 103,3 över en säsong, som har väldigt mycket data att utgå ifrån. Så man kan med konfidens säga att vi inte kommer kunna behålla våra 104,3 från de senaste 12 matcherna när vi summerar säsongen.
